Author: Woolhouse, Mark; Scott, Fiona; Hudson, Zoe; Howey, Richard; Chase-Topping, Margo
Title: Human viruses: discovery and emergence Document date: 2012_10_19
ID: 0i59vlyd_13
Snippet: (d) Projecting the discovery curve Following the approach described previously [5] , we modelled human virus discovery since 1954, assuming a total number of species available to be discoveredthe species pool-of N virus species, each discovered where year t ¼ 1 corresponds to 1954. However, the binomial distribution B(N, p) can be accurately approximated by a Poisson distribution with parameter Np for the range of values of N and p of interest. .....
Document: (d) Projecting the discovery curve Following the approach described previously [5] , we modelled human virus discovery since 1954, assuming a total number of species available to be discoveredthe species pool-of N virus species, each discovered where year t ¼ 1 corresponds to 1954. However, the binomial distribution B(N, p) can be accurately approximated by a Poisson distribution with parameter Np for the range of values of N and p of interest. Thus, for a set of model parameters, the likelihood of observing data X ¼ fx i g, the number of viruses discovered over years 1 to k, is given by
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