Inference and control of the nosocomial transmission of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus

Pei, Sen; Morone, Flaviano; Liljeros, Fredrik; Makse, Hernán; Shaman, Jeffrey L

The colonization probability obtained from inference quantifies individual systemic risk given the general situation of transmission, regardless of the specific location of undetected colonization. In contrast, screening based on contact tracing identifies colonized individuals related to observed infections; however, with an unknown amount of imported colonization, this approach may overlook a considerable number of colonized patients, who can sustain subsequent transmission. As a result, the inference-based intervention can identify and treat the pivotal individuals, or superspreaders Pei et al., 2014; Pei et al., 2018b; Teng et al., 2016) , who may otherwise transmit MRSA asymptomatically in the first place. This preventive approach is more effective than contact tracing in the presence of frequent importation, as it disrupts probable transmission pathways. In real-world hospital settings, the proposed inference-based intervention could be implemented and evaluated in real time: it only requires hospitalization records and ward information.