Author: Norden E Huang; Fangli Qiao; Ka-Kit Tung
Title: A data-driven tool for tracking and predicting the course of COVID-19 epidemic as it evolves Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: mxen3n0k_124
Snippet: for two incubation periods. The first incubation period is to allow the asymptomatic 771 infected to show symptoms and the second period to allow those that are infected 772 by the asymptomatic infected to show symptoms. For prediction purpose, the date 773 when the N(t) is zero is estimated by 3 standard deviations from its peak. These 774 two quantities can be extracted from the data as the epidemic is developing. Our 775 estimate of the end of.....
Document: for two incubation periods. The first incubation period is to allow the asymptomatic 771 infected to show symptoms and the second period to allow those that are infected 772 by the asymptomatic infected to show symptoms. For prediction purpose, the date 773 when the N(t) is zero is estimated by 3 standard deviations from its peak. These 774 two quantities can be extracted from the data as the epidemic is developing. Our 775 estimate of the end of the epidemic is earlier than most model predictions, usually 776 significantly so, because it does not depend on the herd immunity concept. 777 778 779 THEORY: 780
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