Author: Shengjie Lai; Isaac Bogoch; Nick Ruktanonchai; Alexander Watts; Xin Lu; Weizhong Yang; Hongjie Yu; Kamran Khan; Andrew J Tatem
Title: Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study Document date: 2020_2_5
ID: iat80b4l_19
Snippet: We also estimated the number of airline travellers that may have needed to be kept in quarantine from Wuhan during the two weeks prior to the city's travel ban. The LNY's day in 2018 was on February 16 and the lockdown of Wuhan happened two days before LNY's day, corresponding to the date of February 14 th , 2018. We therefore defined the number of travellers needing to be quarantined as half of the volume of airline travellers from Wuhan in Febr.....
Document: We also estimated the number of airline travellers that may have needed to be kept in quarantine from Wuhan during the two weeks prior to the city's travel ban. The LNY's day in 2018 was on February 16 and the lockdown of Wuhan happened two days before LNY's day, corresponding to the date of February 14 th , 2018. We therefore defined the number of travellers needing to be quarantined as half of the volume of airline travellers from Wuhan in February, 2018, representing the 2-week total number of travellers for the first half of February. We then estimated the number of infections and its 95% uncertainty interval (UI) in these airline travellers from Wuhan, based on a binomial distribution and the proportion of 2019-nCoV infections in the citizens evacuated from Wuhan reported by Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and Germany, as of January 31 st , 2020 [6, [14] [15] [16] [17] .
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