Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience

Cori, Anne; Donnelly, Christl A.; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Ferguson, Neil M.; Fraser, Christophe; Garske, Tini; Jombart, Thibaut; Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma; Nouvellet, Pierre; Riley, Steven; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Mills, Harriet L.; Blake, Isobel M.

assumptions underlying analyses should be clearly stated sensitivity to these assumptions should be tested uncertainty in results should be adequately explored and reported These are particularly relevant for reporting epidemic projections. these heterogeneities can help target resources appropriately and compare different care regimens. For less severe emerging pathogens, the case definition typically only encompasses a small fraction of all infected individuals, and hence the infection fatality rate (i.e. the proportion of infected individuals who die, rather than the proportion of cases who die-as per the case definition, which may not be equivalent to infection) may be a more useful measure of severity [30] .