Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including A/H1N1 and Ebola

Liu, Wendi; Tang, Sanyi; Xiao, Yanni

The estimations of the parameters for Logistic model are shown in the third line of Table 4 and basic reproduction number 0 and turning point based on Guinea data are shown in the third line of Table 5 . The estimation of 0 based on Logistic model is 1.2101 (95% CI (1.2084, 1.2119)) with generation interval = 12 days and the different estimations with different are shown in Figure 5 . The result of = 239 (95% CI (237, 241) ) indicates that the turning point had For Liberia, the selection results are given in the fourth line of Table 3 and Figure 3 (c). It follows from Table 3 that Bayes factorŝ4 2 ,̂4 3 are infinite (>100 naturally), which suggests that there exists decisive evidence for model 4 (i.e., Richards model) compared with models 2 and 3 . Moreover, 14 < 1/100 and̂4 1 = 500000 > 100 indicate that the evidence for the selection of Richards model is decisive. Meanwhile, we calculate the AIC values which are given by 6308, 6547, 7980, and 2559 for models 1 , 2 , 3 , and 4 , respectively. It supports us to choose Richards model, which is the best model for us to fit Liberia data. In Figure 3 (c), the numbers of four models which have been selected in the last 2000 runs are 1, 0, 0, and 1999 for models 1 , 2 , 3 , and 4 , respectively, which further confirms that Richards model is the best model for Liberia data set, as shown in Figure 4 (c).