Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including A/H1N1 and Ebola

Liu, Wendi; Tang, Sanyi; Xiao, Yanni

The estimation of 0 based on Richards model is 1.9018 (95% CI (1.8565, 1.9478)) with generation interval = 12 days and variation in 0 with different values of is shown in Figure 5 . Comparing the actual reported cases and the model predicted cases, on 14 June, 2015, the rates of underestimated or overestimated model are, respectively, −5.9%, +2.8%, −7.7%, and −3.5% for West Africa, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, as shown in Table 6 . In Liberia, the underestimated rate is bigger than others because the data had changed due to ongoing reclassification, retrospective investigation, and availability of laboratory results, and the data of Liberia had significant adjustments. This also is why 0 for Liberia is the biggest. Note that the reported accumulated cases including confirmed, probable, and suspected cases in Liberia have been revised largely; for example, there are 4665, 6535, and 6525 cases on October 23, October 27, and November 2, 2014, respectively. Similarly, the reported accumulated cases in Sierra Leone are 3896, 5235, and 4759 on October 23, October 27, and November 2, 2014, respectively. Those big differences could result in the big variances in estimating and predicting the outbreaks of Ebola in West Africa. Therefore, the more precise data sets are, the more accurate estimation and predication are.