Author: Qinghe Liu; Zhicheng Liu; Junkai Zhu; Yuhao Zhu; Deqiang Li; Zefei Gao; Liuling Zhou; Junyan Yang; Qiao Wang
Title: Assessing the Global Tendency of COVID-19 Outbreak Document date: 2020_3_20
ID: adcptyfj_20
Snippet: In phase two, SARS-CoV-2 spread rapidly. The infection rate remains at a high level, and the recovery level is low because the government had not carried out obviously effective policy control. From phase three, the infection rate decreases and the recovery rate begins to increase. Through the study of the historical data of COVID-19 in China, we dicided to use the power law to simulate the trend of infection rate and recovery rate in phase three.....
Document: In phase two, SARS-CoV-2 spread rapidly. The infection rate remains at a high level, and the recovery level is low because the government had not carried out obviously effective policy control. From phase three, the infection rate decreases and the recovery rate begins to increase. Through the study of the historical data of COVID-19 in China, we dicided to use the power law to simulate the trend of infection rate and recovery rate in phase three, as is shown in equation (3.2) . Since the coefficient c plays a role in inhibiting the growth of the number of confirmed cases, we define c as the incremental inhibition ratio.
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