Author: Asami Anzai; Tetsuro Kobayashi; Natalie M. Linton; Ryo Kinoshita; Katsuma Hayashi; Ayako Suzuki; Yichi Yang; Sungmok Jung; Takeshi Miyama; Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov; Hiroshi Nishiura
Title: Assessing the impact of reduced travel on exportation dynamics of novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) Document date: 2020_2_17
ID: j1yqn9xg_12
Snippet: where Ü¿ i s the initial value at t=0 and r is the exponential growth rate of exported cases outside China. Using the estimated parameters and their covariance matrix, we obtain the expected number of exported cases from Day 58 onwards. Supposing that h(t) is the observed number of cases on day t, the reduced travel volume of exported cases by Day 67 is calculated as:.....
Document: where Ü¿ i s the initial value at t=0 and r is the exponential growth rate of exported cases outside China. Using the estimated parameters and their covariance matrix, we obtain the expected number of exported cases from Day 58 onwards. Supposing that h(t) is the observed number of cases on day t, the reduced travel volume of exported cases by Day 67 is calculated as:
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