Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including A/H1N1 and Ebola

Liu, Wendi; Tang, Sanyi; Xiao, Yanni

To show the results of model selection intuitively, Figure 2 (a) gives the selection results for the last 2000 groups of all estimated parameters from the Markov chains. In Figure 2 (a), the number of four models which have been selected in the last 2000 runs is 1102, 0, 0, and 898 for models 1 , 2 , 3 , and 4 , respectively. It is easy to notice that the probabilities for Logistic model and Richards model are almost the same, which further confirm that Logistic model and Richards model are the best model for the A/H1N1 data set. Fitting, respectively, four models to the cumulate A/H1N1 case number data, we obtained model fit for the initial outbreak from September 3 to September 21, shown in Figure 2 (b). It is easy to notice that the best fitted theoretical models are Logistic model and Richards model and the solution curves of Logistic model and Richards model are coincident.