Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including A/H1N1 and Ebola

Liu, Wendi; Tang, Sanyi; Xiao, Yanni

The turning point and final size have been also estimated and calculated. For example, the turning point for West Africa was 227 days which corresponds to 5 November, 2014, and the turning points for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone were about October or November, 2014. Further, the final breakout time will be September or December, 2015, with final size of 3916 (95% CI (3865, 3967)) for Guinea, 9886 (95% CI (9740, 10031)) for Liberia, 12633 (95% CI (12515, 12750)) for Sierra Leone, and 25794 (95% CI (25630, 25958)) for West Africa, respectively, as shown in Table 3 . Note that the Ebola outbreak in Liberia was declared over on 9 May, after 42 complete days that elapsed since the burial of the last confirmed case, but the estimation of final time of Liberia was September 23, 2015, because of the accumulative reported numbers of suspected cases being increasing. That is the reason of the country having entered a 3-month period of heightened vigilance from May 9, 2015, and WHO will maintain an enhanced presence in the country until the end of 2015, with a particular focus on areas that border Guinea and Sierra Leone (http://apps.who.int/ebola/en/current-situation/ebola-situation-report-13-may-2015).