Author: Liu, Wendi; Tang, Sanyi; Xiao, Yanni
Title: Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including A/H1N1 and Ebola Document date: 2015_9_15
ID: 0j4is0n4_59
Snippet: Our estimate of 0 = 1.9005 with (95% CI (1.8869, 1.9142)) on A/H1N1 is quite similar to that from the data for Shaanxi Province obtained by Tang et al. [11, 13] but with little differences that could well be associated with differences in methodology. Further, many factors such as differences in population densities, realization of control measure, and mobility of the population among regions led to a wide range of reproduction number. Our estima.....
Document: Our estimate of 0 = 1.9005 with (95% CI (1.8869, 1.9142)) on A/H1N1 is quite similar to that from the data for Shaanxi Province obtained by Tang et al. [11, 13] but with little differences that could well be associated with differences in methodology. Further, many factors such as differences in population densities, realization of control measure, and mobility of the population among regions led to a wide range of reproduction number. Our estimated reproduction numbers from the hospital notifications are in broad agreement with those obtained in studies on data from Mexico (95% CI (1.2, 1.6)) [18] , the United States of America (95% CI (1.7, 1.8)) [19] , and New Zealand (95% CI (1.80, 2.15)) [20] . Thus, we believe that the best model (i.e., Richards model) can be used for rapid epidemic modeling in the face of public health crisis.
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