Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including A/H1N1 and Ebola

Liu, Wendi; Tang, Sanyi; Xiao, Yanni

The selection results are shown in Table 3 and Figure 3 . In Table 3 , we compute the relevant Bayes factors and AICs for four candidate models. Figure 3 gives the selection result for last 2000 groups of all estimated parameters from the Markov chains based on the Ebola cases of West Africa, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The estimations of model parameters and 0 , , and final size are shown in Tables 4 and 5, respectively. In Table 6 , we compared the reported cases and model predicted cases of Ebola based on Richards model on June 14, 2015. In Figure 4 , the model fitting results for four models and data sets are also provided. Note that the data points from March 25, 2014, to May 3, 2015, for West Africa and Guinea and the data points from May 27, 2014, to May 3, 2015, for Liberia and Sierra Leone have been used to fit the models. In Figure 5 , we show the different 0 and relevant 95% confidence interval when the generation time changes from 10 days to 18 days.