Model Selection and Evaluation Based on Emerging Infectious Disease Data Sets including A/H1N1 and Ebola

Liu, Wendi; Tang, Sanyi; Xiao, Yanni

For the results of model selection, the most appropriate model is Logistic model or Richards model which requires only cumulative case data from an epidemic curve ( Table 7 ). Note that for the earlier stages of an epidemic such as Ebola in Guinea the Logistic model cannot fit the data well [12] . However, our main results show that the Logistic model could be a candidate to fit the data with more time points. All those indicate that the model selection depends on the length of the time series. Moreover, Logistic model is a special case of Richards model with the exponent of deviation parameter 1. Therefore, we conclude that Richards model could be chosen firstly when estimating 0 that require more extensive and detailed data [24, 25] . E. Tjørve and K. M. C. Tjørve [26] indicated that Gompertz model is also a special case of Richards model, but our results indicate that Gompertz model may not be a suitable candidate for describing the data of emerging infectious diseases.