Anticipating the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic

Taranjot Kaur; Sukanta Sarkar; Sourangsu Chowdhury; Sudipta Kumar Sinha; Mohit Kumar Jolly; Partha Sharathi Dutta

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057430 doi: medRxiv preprint This measure was accompanied by a drop in the number of cases, and the curve followed the pattern as observed for China ( Fig. 1 C) . The rising indicators of CSD around 40 days also suggest that the time gap in implementing the protocols such as the closure of public gatherings, controlled public movement, lockdown beyond 15-25 days from the onset of the crisis can significantly influence the growth curve and result in the more extended time required to flatten it. However, the interventions during the initial 40 days in each of these countries can slowly hamper the daily increase in the number of cases. In the US, the hints of an approaching transition are visible relatively early (around 35 days after the first case was reported) by both the return rate as well as the ACF(1) (Figs. 2D and 2M).