Author: Taranjot Kaur; Sukanta Sarkar; Sourangsu Chowdhury; Sudipta Kumar Sinha; Mohit Kumar Jolly; Partha Sharathi Dutta
Title: Anticipating the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic Document date: 2020_4_10
ID: 1xenvfcd_15
Snippet: The scenario is quite different in the case of India. The COVID-19 growth curve does not signal the behavior of CSD within the initial 40 days of the outbreak (Figs. 2A and 2J). Due to a continuous rise in the number of cases and the exponential curve observed for many countries, we also analyse the EWSs in the growth curve for India, following a backward approach. We consider the cumulative cases of 40 days prior to the beginning of the countryw.....
Document: The scenario is quite different in the case of India. The COVID-19 growth curve does not signal the behavior of CSD within the initial 40 days of the outbreak (Figs. 2A and 2J). Due to a continuous rise in the number of cases and the exponential curve observed for many countries, we also analyse the EWSs in the growth curve for India, following a backward approach. We consider the cumulative cases of 40 days prior to the beginning of the countrywide lockdown (25 March, Fig. 3A ). The autocorrelation captures the signals of CSD (Fig. 3C) , whereas the return rate does not show a decreasing trend (Fig. 3B ).
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