Anticipating the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic

Taranjot Kaur; Sukanta Sarkar; Sourangsu Chowdhury; Sudipta Kumar Sinha; Mohit Kumar Jolly; Partha Sharathi Dutta

where a, b, and c are parameters. Once we obtain these parameters for an individual country, we map them to our model and find the system parameters k i , k r and K, and i 0 is the initial infected poplation. We list those parameters below: Then the above parameters are used to solve the Master equation (Eq. 3) , and we perform Monte-Carlo simulation to get stochastic trajectories up to 15 April. We present the simulated stochastic trajectories in Fig. 7 . For each country, we have five trajectories. For China and South Korea, we find that our stochastic trajectories are consistent with the real time-series of the number of infected people. However, for India, our result shows that on 15 April 2020, the number of infected people can go up to approximately 13500 (which is an average of final values of the five simulated trajectories).