Assessing the potential impacts of COVID-19 in Brasil: Mobility, Morbidity and Impact to the Health System

Flavio Codeco Coelho; Raquel Martins Lana; Oswaldo G Cruz; Claudia T Codeco; Daniel Villela; Leonardo S Bastos; Ana Pastory y Piontti; Jessica T Davis; Alessandro Vespignani; Marcelo F.C. Gomes

São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states identified virus community transmission on March 13, 2020 [4, 5, 6]. Just four days later, 240 cases were confirmed in 10 São Paulo, 4 deaths were registered, and 5,334 individuals remain under investigation [3] . In Rio de Janeiro, 45 have been confirmed and 1,254 individuals are under investigation, according to the Ministry of Health [3] . The corresponding capitals -which are also called São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro -are the most populous metropolitan areas of Brazil, with millions of people living 15 in precarious conditions. These two states are also the country's main local and international hubs, with millions of people moving from place to place. Other pathogens such as Influenza A H1N1, in 2009, and various strains of the dengue virus, are known to have been introduced in the country through these hubs [7] .