Selected article for: "cc NC ND International license and current number"
Author: Seth Blumberg; Thomas M Lietman; Travis C Porco
Title: Assessing the plausibility of subcritical transmission of 2019-nCoV in the United States
  • Document date: 2020_2_11
    • ID: 2g8rfzf4_12
    Snippet: In conclusion, based solely on the observed number of cases so far, the current case count for 2019 nCoV in the United States currently supports subcritical transmission because the upper limit of R is less than one. This result holds even when a high degree of heterogeneity is permitted (e.g. a dispersion of 0.3). However, it is too early to make a definitive statement about subcriticality because there may still be cases that are pre-symptomati.....
    Document: In conclusion, based solely on the observed number of cases so far, the current case count for 2019 nCoV in the United States currently supports subcritical transmission because the upper limit of R is less than one. This result holds even when a high degree of heterogeneity is permitted (e.g. a dispersion of 0.3). However, it is too early to make a definitive statement about subcriticality because there may still be cases that are pre-symptomatic. This simple approach for assessing whether subcritical transmission is plausible may be applicable to other diseases, such as avian influenza, with low case counts. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

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