Author: Seth Blumberg; Thomas M Lietman; Travis C Porco
Title: Assessing the plausibility of subcritical transmission of 2019-nCoV in the United States Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: 2g8rfzf4_8
Snippet: A) The upper limit of the 95% confidence interval for the basic reproduction number, R , is plotted as a function of the number of observed primary cases, N p . Each colored lined corresponds to a different number of observed secondary cases N s . The black dot shows the case count as of Feb 6, 2020. SInce it falls below R = 1, the observed cases are currently consistent with subcritical transmission (assuming there are not any pre-symptomatic se.....
Document: A) The upper limit of the 95% confidence interval for the basic reproduction number, R , is plotted as a function of the number of observed primary cases, N p . Each colored lined corresponds to a different number of observed secondary cases N s . The black dot shows the case count as of Feb 6, 2020. SInce it falls below R = 1, the observed cases are currently consistent with subcritical transmission (assuming there are not any pre-symptomatic secondary cases yet to be observed). A dispersion parameter of 0.3 is assumed, which allows a high degree of disease heterogeneity. B) The number of secondary cases that can be . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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