Author: Flavio Codeco Coelho; Raquel Martins Lana; Oswaldo G Cruz; Claudia T Codeco; Daniel Villela; Leonardo S Bastos; Ana Pastory y Piontti; Jessica T Davis; Alessandro Vespignani; Marcelo F.C. Gomes
Title: Assessing the potential impacts of COVID-19 in Brasil: Mobility, Morbidity and Impact to the Health System Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: h1b0s2wy_13
Snippet: To assess the probability of COVID-19 spreading within the Brazilian ter-70 ritory in the absence of mobility restrictions, we calculated the effective distance (E f (i, j)) between micro-regions using air travel data. The value of E f (i, j) is a measure of proximity between two micro-regions i and j created by the flow of people, which is known to strongly correlate with the time it takes to import infectious diseases into new territories from .....
Document: To assess the probability of COVID-19 spreading within the Brazilian ter-70 ritory in the absence of mobility restrictions, we calculated the effective distance (E f (i, j)) between micro-regions using air travel data. The value of E f (i, j) is a measure of proximity between two micro-regions i and j created by the flow of people, which is known to strongly correlate with the time it takes to import infectious diseases into new territories from a well-defined ori-75 gin [11, 12] , particularly for diseases with direct transmission. To facilitate comparison between different scenarios, we also calculated a relative effective distance index (e f ), dividing E f by the distance to the nearest destination:
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