Author: Guo, Zuiyuan; Xiao, Dan; Li, Dongli; Wang, Xiuhong; Wang, Yayu; Yan, Tiecheng; Wang, Zhiqi
Title: Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures Document date: 2016_4_6
ID: 1amm2hh8_6
Snippet: Combining the three countries into a single region, the model indicates that if there were no EVD outbreak control or prevention measures in place, EVD would first re-emerge in 2035, and then re-emerge again about 8-9 years later. The oscillation periods would shorten and the amplitudes (severity of EVD epidemic) would decrease gradually until the oscillation occurred with a sustained periodicity of approximately 5.3 years around the positive dyn.....
Document: Combining the three countries into a single region, the model indicates that if there were no EVD outbreak control or prevention measures in place, EVD would first re-emerge in 2035, and then re-emerge again about 8-9 years later. The oscillation periods would shorten and the amplitudes (severity of EVD epidemic) would decrease gradually until the oscillation occurred with a sustained periodicity of approximately 5.3 years around the positive dynamic equilibrium point (Fig 2) .
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