Author: Worden, Lee; Wannier, Rae; Hoff, Nicole A.; Musene, Kamy; Selo, Bernice; Mossoko, Mathias; Okitolonda-Wemakoy, Emile; Muyembe Tamfum, Jean Jacques; Rutherford, George W.; Lietman, Thomas M.; Rimoin, Anne W.; Porco, Travis C.; Kelly, J. Daniel
Title: Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019 Document date: 2019_8_5
ID: 1lg2203q_60
Snippet: Many of the reported EVD cases in this outbreak have been identified as new transmission chains. While a reduced ability to detect and vaccinate contacts in difficult-to-access communities has been anecdotally reported, our stochastic model provided empirical evidence of outbreak challenges, suggesting that transmission rates were consistent with lower than target levels of vaccine coverage beyond those already reported. While a catastrophic outb.....
Document: Many of the reported EVD cases in this outbreak have been identified as new transmission chains. While a reduced ability to detect and vaccinate contacts in difficult-to-access communities has been anecdotally reported, our stochastic model provided empirical evidence of outbreak challenges, suggesting that transmission rates were consistent with lower than target levels of vaccine coverage beyond those already reported. While a catastrophic outbreak of 10,000 or more cases is not projected as probable, vigilance is warranted. New circumstances -such as epidemic spread to Uganda-call for newly validated projections, whenever possible, even in the short term.
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