Author: Worden, Lee; Wannier, Rae; Hoff, Nicole A.; Musene, Kamy; Selo, Bernice; Mossoko, Mathias; Okitolonda-Wemakoy, Emile; Muyembe Tamfum, Jean Jacques; Rutherford, George W.; Lietman, Thomas M.; Rimoin, Anne W.; Porco, Travis C.; Kelly, J. Daniel
Title: Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019 Document date: 2019_8_5
ID: 1lg2203q_32
Snippet: We conducted a simple regression forecast based solely on outbreaks of size 10 or greater, based on prior outbreaks [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] . Nonparametric Theil-Sen regression (R package mblm [38] ) was used to project the final outbreak size based on values of the outbreak size at a specific earlier time. All time series were aligned on the day they reached 10 cases. Finally, we reported the median .....
Document: We conducted a simple regression forecast based solely on outbreaks of size 10 or greater, based on prior outbreaks [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] . Nonparametric Theil-Sen regression (R package mblm [38] ) was used to project the final outbreak size based on values of the outbreak size at a specific earlier time. All time series were aligned on the day they reached 10 cases. Finally, we reported the median and 95% central coverage intervals for the prediction distribution, conditional on the predicted value being no smaller than the observed value for each day. More details can be found elsewhere [16] .
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