Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019

Worden, Lee; Wannier, Rae; Hoff, Nicole A.; Musene, Kamy; Selo, Bernice; Mossoko, Mathias; Okitolonda-Wemakoy, Emile; Muyembe Tamfum, Jean Jacques; Rutherford, George W.; Lietman, Thomas M.; Rimoin, Anne W.; Porco, Travis C.; Kelly, J. Daniel

Supporting information S1 Table. Table of past outbreaks by year and country. Official reported case counts for each epidemic are given, including suspected cases ("Reported Count"). Case counts for the time series data included in the models include only probable and confirmed cases ("Time Series Count"). Case counts for historic outbreaks were pulled from publicly available literature [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] . Lastly, each historic outbreak's inclusion in the regression, stochastic, and auto-regression models is enumerated. (PDF) S2 Table. Table of medians and 95% prediction intervals of model projections. This table summarizes the medians and 95% prediction intervals produced by each model on the most recent data set included, and their probabilities of the large outcomes discussed in the text. (PDF) S1 Fig. Reported case counts in current outbreak by date, in multiple snapshots of available data. We retained snapshots of the data set of case counts to date as of multiple dates of data collection, for use in scoring of retrospective model projections against known subsequent counts. In later data sets, due to the larger number of data points, a subset of the case counts was selected for use in the stochastic model's particle filtering step, as noted in the figure.