Author: Worden, Lee; Wannier, Rae; Hoff, Nicole A.; Musene, Kamy; Selo, Bernice; Mossoko, Mathias; Okitolonda-Wemakoy, Emile; Muyembe Tamfum, Jean Jacques; Rutherford, George W.; Lietman, Thomas M.; Rimoin, Anne W.; Porco, Travis C.; Kelly, J. Daniel
Title: Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019 Document date: 2019_8_5
ID: 1lg2203q_25
Snippet: We used past estimates of the proportion of unreported cases to estimate the proportion of exposed individuals not covered by the vaccination process. Based on a Sierra Leonean study from the 2013-2016 outbreak [37] , we estimated the proportion of reported cases (out of all known cases) in DRC to range from a low of 68% to a high of 96%, as extremes of the best known range of estimates, to be evaluated on their fit to data. Given these low and h.....
Document: We used past estimates of the proportion of unreported cases to estimate the proportion of exposed individuals not covered by the vaccination process. Based on a Sierra Leonean study from the 2013-2016 outbreak [37] , we estimated the proportion of reported cases (out of all known cases) in DRC to range from a low of 68% to a high of 96%, as extremes of the best known range of estimates, to be evaluated on their fit to data. Given these low and high estimates of reported cases and the estimate of vaccine effectiveness, a low estimate of vaccination program coverage was 44% (68% × 64.6%) and a high estimate of vaccination program coverage was 62% (96% × 64.6%). Vaccination was included in the simulation using a start date of August 14, 2018, estimated from dates available from situation reports [3] .
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