Author: Worden, Lee; Wannier, Rae; Hoff, Nicole A.; Musene, Kamy; Selo, Bernice; Mossoko, Mathias; Okitolonda-Wemakoy, Emile; Muyembe Tamfum, Jean Jacques; Rutherford, George W.; Lietman, Thomas M.; Rimoin, Anne W.; Porco, Travis C.; Kelly, J. Daniel
Title: Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019 Document date: 2019_8_5
ID: 1lg2203q_8
Snippet: During an Ebola outbreak, real-time forecasting has the potential to support decision-making and allocation of resources, but highly accurate forecasts have proven difficult for Ebola [8, 9] as well as other diseases [10] [11] [12] [13] . Highly accurate forecasts of small, noisy outbreaks may be a fundamentally elusive ideal [14] . Previous work has found that probabilistic forecasts can have relatively high accuracy within a few weeks, though t.....
Document: During an Ebola outbreak, real-time forecasting has the potential to support decision-making and allocation of resources, but highly accurate forecasts have proven difficult for Ebola [8, 9] as well as other diseases [10] [11] [12] [13] . Highly accurate forecasts of small, noisy outbreaks may be a fundamentally elusive ideal [14] . Previous work has found that probabilistic forecasts can have relatively high accuracy within a few weeks, though they become less useful as time horizons grow longer [15] . Thus, short-term forecasts may provide useful information for response organizations.
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