Selected article for: "outbreak size and probability mass function"

Author: Worden, Lee; Wannier, Rae; Hoff, Nicole A.; Musene, Kamy; Selo, Bernice; Mossoko, Mathias; Okitolonda-Wemakoy, Emile; Muyembe Tamfum, Jean Jacques; Rutherford, George W.; Lietman, Thomas M.; Rimoin, Anne W.; Porco, Travis C.; Kelly, J. Daniel
Title: Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019
  • Document date: 2019_8_5
  • ID: 1lg2203q_34
    Snippet: Gott's rule assumes we have no special knowledge of our position on the epidemic curve [39] . Given Y 0 cases reported, assuming a non-informative uniform prior for the portion α of the epidemic observed to date, the corresponding probability density function for the final size Y = Y 0 /α is Y 0 /y 2 , Y 0 � y. We constructed a probability mass function by assigning all probability density to the whole number of days given by the integer part.....
    Document: Gott's rule assumes we have no special knowledge of our position on the epidemic curve [39] . Given Y 0 cases reported, assuming a non-informative uniform prior for the portion α of the epidemic observed to date, the corresponding probability density function for the final size Y = Y 0 /α is Y 0 /y 2 , Y 0 � y. We constructed a probability mass function by assigning all probability density to the whole number of days given by the integer part of each value. We used this probability mass function as a projection of the final outbreak size.

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