Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures

Guo, Zuiyuan; Xiao, Dan; Li, Dongli; Wang, Xiuhong; Wang, Yayu; Yan, Tiecheng; Wang, Zhiqi

Values and ranges Data sources R 0 (Guinea) 1.710(1.440-2.010) [3] R 0 (Liberia) 1.830(1.720-1.940) [3] R 0 (Sierra Leone) 2.020(1.790-2.260) [3] α(Guinea) 0.110(0.104-0.116) [3] α(Liberia) 0.092(0.087-0.095) [3] α (Sierra Leone) 0.080(0.075-0.085) [3] α(All of them) 0.094(0.091-0.097) [3] γ(Guinea) 0.018(0.158-0.204) [3] γ(Liberia) 0.018(0.160-0.202) [3] γ(Sierra Leone) 0.018(0.156-0.021) [3] γ(All of them) 0.018(0.017-0.019) [3] ω(Guinea) 0.092(0.074-0.110) [3] ω(Liberia) 0.086(0.069-0.103) [3] ω(Sierra Leone) 0.093(0.074-0.112) [3] ω(All of them) 0.088(0.070-0.106) [3] b(Guinea) 1.093×10 −4 [33, 34] b (Liberia) 1.110×10 −4 [33, 34] b (Sierra Leone) 1.112×10 −4 [33, 34] b(All of them) 1.096×10 −4 Calculation d(Guinea) 3.808×10 −5 [33, 34] d(Liberia) 3.288×10 −5 [33, 34] d(Sierra Leone) 4.630×10 −5 [33, 34] d(All of them) 3.940×10 LHS is a stratified Monte Carlo sampling method in which each parameter's range is divided into N equal intervals and one sample is selected randomly from each interval [36, 37] . A standard correlation coefficient-ρ for the parameter and model output was calculated.