Author: Wu, Peng; Hao, Xinxin; Lau, Eric H Y; Wong, Jessica Y; Leung, Kathy S M; Wu, Joseph T; Cowling, Benjamin J; Leung, Gabriel M
Title: Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020 Document date: 2020_1_23
ID: 0rxtati9_20
Snippet: To date, as at 22 January, official information has not been sufficient to determine the source of infection and risk of human-to-human transmission for the newly emerged 2019-nCoV. Two competing hypotheses are therefore proposed and compared as potential explanations for the characteristics of the current outbreak of 2019-nCoV infections within and outside mainland China. Scenario 1 comprises a large zoonotic spillover event starting in early De.....
Document: To date, as at 22 January, official information has not been sufficient to determine the source of infection and risk of human-to-human transmission for the newly emerged 2019-nCoV. Two competing hypotheses are therefore proposed and compared as potential explanations for the characteristics of the current outbreak of 2019-nCoV infections within and outside mainland China. Scenario 1 comprises a large zoonotic spillover event starting in early December 2019, perhaps over a number of days or weeks, and very limited human-to-human transmission subsequently. Scenario 2 comprises a small zoonotic spillover event in early December 2019 followed by efficient human-to-human transmission. Evidence consistent or inconsistent with each of these two scenarios is outlined in the Table.
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