Assessing the impact of reduced travel on exportation dynamics of novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19)

Asami Anzai; Tetsuro Kobayashi; Natalie M. Linton; Ryo Kinoshita; Katsuma Hayashi; Ayako Suzuki; Yichi Yang; Sungmok Jung; Takeshi Miyama; Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov; Hiroshi Nishiura

Since Wuhan was placed on lockdown, travel restriction and border control have been implemented by various countries, either as: (i) complete travel bans, (ii) travel restriction and quarantine-which allows for restriction of healthy individuals, (iii) entry screening for all incoming travelers, or some combination thereof. Most countermeasures are in line with (ii) and (iii), aside from the three cities on complete lockdown, while some countries at high risk refused any entry from China (e.g. Australia) or those from Hubei province (e.g. Japan). All travel arrangements including tourist tours outbound from China (to international destinations) were cancelled, and all non-urgent travel with business purposes both inbound and outbound were greatly reduced.