Assessing the impact of reduced travel on exportation dynamics of novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19)

Asami Anzai; Tetsuro Kobayashi; Natalie M. Linton; Ryo Kinoshita; Katsuma Hayashi; Ayako Suzuki; Yichi Yang; Sungmok Jung; Takeshi Miyama; Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov; Hiroshi Nishiura

Although the COVID-19 epidemic was declared a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO), the WHO specifically called upon member states to not restrict the freedom of movement of persons as a result of the epidemic [21] . However, member states did not adhere to this recommendation and have varyingly restricted the free movement of people from China [22] . Such restrictions were most drastic in China, where some cities were put on complete lockdown [22] . These political decisions regarding movement restrictions must balance the expected epidemiological impact with predicted economic burden-the latter of which we did not examine. While securing a few days delay to epidemic spread in China would secure time for healthcare systems in Chinese cities that have not yet been affected to prepare for the appearance of case-patients [20] , the impact of such a delay outside China is not substantial enough to accomplish meaningful prevention, such as the development, manufacturing, and distribution of a vaccine.