Author: Worden, Lee; Wannier, Rae; Hoff, Nicole A.; Musene, Kamy; Selo, Bernice; Mossoko, Mathias; Okitolonda-Wemakoy, Emile; Muyembe Tamfum, Jean Jacques; Rutherford, George W.; Lietman, Thomas M.; Rimoin, Anne W.; Porco, Travis C.; Kelly, J. Daniel
Title: Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019 Document date: 2019_8_5
ID: 1lg2203q_38
Snippet: • Case count 1 week after the last available case count • Case count 2 weeks after the last available case count • Case count 4 weeks after the last available case count • Case count 8 weeks after the last available case count For each projection, we generated an assignment of probability to possible values of multiple quantities. As Ebola situation reports were released before February 25, we generated short-term projections in real time.....
Document: • Case count 1 week after the last available case count • Case count 2 weeks after the last available case count • Case count 4 weeks after the last available case count • Case count 8 weeks after the last available case count For each projection, we generated an assignment of probability to possible values of multiple quantities. As Ebola situation reports were released before February 25, we generated short-term projections in real time with the stochastic and negative binomial auto-regression models. We scored these projections and calibrated the models during the outbreak. We then used these calibrated models for our projections on February 25. The Theil-Sen and Gott's rule models were not calibrated, because the outbreak's final size is not yet known. Final outbreak size projections generated by the stochastic, Theil-Sen, and Gott's rule models were recorded for future evaluation of their performance.
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