Author: Seth Blumberg; Thomas M Lietman; Travis C Porco
Title: Assessing the plausibility of subcritical transmission of 2019-nCoV in the United States Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: 2g8rfzf4_10
Snippet: From a public health perspective, a particularly important piece of knowledge is how many secondary cases can be observed before endemic transmission is possible ( Figure 1B) . The threshold of secondary cases that can occur before endemic transmission is possible depends on the dispersion parameter. The higher the dispersion parameter is, the smaller the confidence interval for R is, and the threshold number of secondary cases before epidemic tr.....
Document: From a public health perspective, a particularly important piece of knowledge is how many secondary cases can be observed before endemic transmission is possible ( Figure 1B) . The threshold of secondary cases that can occur before endemic transmission is possible depends on the dispersion parameter. The higher the dispersion parameter is, the smaller the confidence interval for R is, and the threshold number of secondary cases before epidemic transmission is possible becomes larger 5 . For example, for the current N p value of 10, the threshold of secondary cases allowing endemic transmission is 2, 3, 5 and 9 for dispersion value of 0.2, 0.3, 0.5 and 1 respectively. For figure 1A , a dispersion parameter of 0.3 is assumed which is on the low side of what is typically observed 3 . This is a conservative estimate and contrasts with the traditional value of one which corresponds to the SIR model of homogenous transmission 7 .
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