Author: Seth Blumberg; Thomas M Lietman; Travis C Porco
Title: Assessing the plausibility of subcritical transmission of 2019-nCoV in the United States Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: 2g8rfzf4_11
Snippet: Importantly, this approach assumes that none of the observed cases remains infectious and that there are no patients who are already infected but are pre-symptomatic. This may be a reasonable assumption if transmission primarily occurs when patients are symptomatic and if symptomatic patients are quickly quarantined. However, until there has been a substantial gap in time (at least one serial interval) since a patient is quarantined this assumpti.....
Document: Importantly, this approach assumes that none of the observed cases remains infectious and that there are no patients who are already infected but are pre-symptomatic. This may be a reasonable assumption if transmission primarily occurs when patients are symptomatic and if symptomatic patients are quickly quarantined. However, until there has been a substantial gap in time (at least one serial interval) since a patient is quarantined this assumption cannot be validated. This approach also does not account for the possibility of symptomatic cases that remain unobserved. Further, subcriticality in one subpopulation does not imply subcriticality in other populations. In addition, if the capacity for isolation is exceeded due to an excess of imported cases, subcriticality now does not imply subcriticality in the future.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date