Selected article for: "epidemic model and generation time"
Author: Tom Britton
Title: Basic estimation-prediction techniques for Covid-19, and a prediction for Stockholm
  • Document date: 2020_4_17
    • ID: 0fmeu4h4_2
    Snippet: We focus on predicting of the main phase of the epidemic, and not on the very beginning or end (when very few are infectious implying that randomness plays a crucial role). For this reason we use a deterministic epidemic model. More specifically we use the General epidemic model [4] because it allows for more heterogeneity in how many infectious contacts different infected have, and when in time these happen, in comparison to generation-time mode.....
    Document: We focus on predicting of the main phase of the epidemic, and not on the very beginning or end (when very few are infectious implying that randomness plays a crucial role). For this reason we use a deterministic epidemic model. More specifically we use the General epidemic model [4] because it allows for more heterogeneity in how many infectious contacts different infected have, and when in time these happen, in comparison to generation-time models such as the Reed-Frost model [4] . The model hence allows for heterogeneity in terms of infections, but all individuals are equally susceptible and mix homogeneously.

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