Author: Tom Britton
Title: Basic estimation-prediction techniques for Covid-19, and a prediction for Stockholm Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: 0fmeu4h4_20
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . Λ(t 1 )/f . This means that we calibrate calendar time to time relative to the start of the epidemic by equating t 1 − s D to the relative value t * for which N − s t * = Λ(t 1 )/f . Given this time calibration between relative and calendar time, t * = t 1 −s D , the estimated number of infected people at present time equals i t * +s D and e.g. the predicted num.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . Λ(t 1 )/f . This means that we calibrate calendar time to time relative to the start of the epidemic by equating t 1 − s D to the relative value t * for which N − s t * = Λ(t 1 )/f . Given this time calibration between relative and calendar time, t * = t 1 −s D , the estimated number of infected people at present time equals i t * +s D and e.g. the predicted number of infectious individuals three weeks later (calendar time t 1 + 21) equals i t * +s D +21 .
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