Basic estimation-prediction techniques for Covid-19, and a prediction for Stockholm

Tom Britton

There are several papers doing more advanced and realistic modelling/prediction (e.g. [3] , [6] , [10] ). However, our estimation-prediction methodology is much simpler and straightforward to implement, and we feel it is a useful complement to the more advanced methods referred to. As a consequence, it is much more transparent to see how the few model assumptions affect the results, and it is easy to vary the few parameters to see their effect on predictions. We hope the method will increase understanding about which parameteruncertainties that have biggest impact on predictions, and which parameter-uncertainties that are less influential. Finally, we expect this simple method to give predictions being quite similar to the more complicated models (and even more similar if reducing peak size and shifting epidemic curve forward in time as described in the Stockholm prediction), and if they don't there is strong reasons to investigate why this is not the case.