Author: Cauchemez, Simon; Epperson, Scott; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Swerdlow, David; Finelli, Lyn; Ferguson, Neil M.
Title: Using Routine Surveillance Data to Estimate the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Zoonoses: Application to the Emergence of US Swine Origin Influenza A H3N2v Virus Document date: 2013_3_5
ID: 16c8dwfq_8
Snippet: Our method relies on the observation that the proportion of detected cases that are infected by the reservoir is largely determined by the reproduction number for human-to-human transmission, R. For example, for the H1N1pdm09 virus which had R.1 and was therefore generating long and expanding chains of transmission, none of the detected human cases were linked to the original swine reservoir. In contrast, for H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenz.....
Document: Our method relies on the observation that the proportion of detected cases that are infected by the reservoir is largely determined by the reproduction number for human-to-human transmission, R. For example, for the H1N1pdm09 virus which had R.1 and was therefore generating long and expanding chains of transmission, none of the detected human cases were linked to the original swine reservoir. In contrast, for H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza, where R in human populations is considerably below 1, a substantial proportion of cases can be linked to exposure to the animal reservoir.
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