Author: Tom Britton
Title: Basic prediction methodology for covid-19: estimation and sensitivity considerations Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: hsgzkpg4_31
Snippet: We now illustrate our simple methodology to realistic covid-19 settings. We start be making predictions assuming no preventive measures whatsoever. In most European countries the doubling time prior to prevntive measures lie very close to d = 3 days. A common estimate of R 0 equals 2.5, but estimates seem to go up so we use R 0 = 3 in our illustration. As our last cumulative death number we pick t 1 = March 24 and assume that the urban area of in.....
Document: We now illustrate our simple methodology to realistic covid-19 settings. We start be making predictions assuming no preventive measures whatsoever. In most European countries the doubling time prior to prevntive measures lie very close to d = 3 days. A common estimate of R 0 equals 2.5, but estimates seem to go up so we use R 0 = 3 in our illustration. As our last cumulative death number we pick t 1 = March 24 and assume that the urban area of interest has a population of N = 3 million and by March 24 had 5 . CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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