Author: Tom Britton
Title: Basic estimation-prediction techniques for Covid-19, and a prediction for Stockholm Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: 0fmeu4h4_41
Snippet: Specific predictions for the Stockholm region have not been published elsewhere as far as we know. Predictions for Sweden have however been performed in [6] and [10] . In [6] predictions are only for a short period and not to the end of the outbreak. The main comparison to be made is their statement that by March 28 they estimate the fraction infected to 3.1% of the Swedish population (with credibility bound 0.85%-8.4%). Our best prediction (as d.....
Document: Specific predictions for the Stockholm region have not been published elsewhere as far as we know. Predictions for Sweden have however been performed in [6] and [10] . In [6] predictions are only for a short period and not to the end of the outbreak. The main comparison to be made is their statement that by March 28 they estimate the fraction infected to 3.1% of the Swedish population (with credibility bound 0.85%-8.4%). Our best prediction (as described above) would be to look one week earlier, so March 21, and the blue curve of Figure 2 , which then has 13.3% infected. We note that our prediction is for Stockholm which had the vast majority of all infections in the beginning of the outbreak, and since the Stockholm region makes up 20% of the country population, 13.3% infected in Stockholm could very well agree with 3.1% (or slightly more) in all of Sweden.
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