Understanding the early dynamics of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreak in Ontario using the incidence decay and exponential adjustment (IDEA) model

Greer, Amy L.; Spence, Kelsey; Gardner, Emma

Where, I t is the number of incident cases in each model generation, R 0 is the basic reproductive number, d is a control parameter that allows for the decay of disease incidence over time and t is scaled in terms of the generation time. In the absence of any disease control interventions, we would expect the disease to increase over time with cases growing to the power of t. However, when control measures or interventions are implemented in the system, we expect that those controls act on the disease transmission parameter (R 0 ) by reducing it over time by a power of t 2. Best-fit model parameter values are obtained using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) by fitting the model to the cumulative incidence data.