Understanding the early dynamics of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreak in Ontario using the incidence decay and exponential adjustment (IDEA) model

Greer, Amy L.; Spence, Kelsey; Gardner, Emma

The OMAFRA dataset describes 58 Ontario swine farms that were confirmed to have tested positive for PEDV between January 1 st , 2014 and April 30 th , 2014 (Fig. 1) . The first confirmed case occurred on January 22, 2014 in Middlesex County and the last confirmed case in the dataset occurred on April 30, 2014 in the same county. All of the confirmed cases were found in southwestern Ontario with the exception of one case on February 14, 2014 that was located in eastern Ontario. Thirty-eight cases occurred during the period of time when transmission is thought to have been the result of direct transmission between farms (after February 19, 2014) rather than through a point source exposure (e.g. swine feed). In the post-recall period, the types of farms represented in the dataset-exhibited differences compared to the prerecall period. During the pre-recall period, none of the documented cases occurred in finisher herds whereas, in the post-recall period, 61% of the cases occurred in finisher herds.