Understanding the early dynamics of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreak in Ontario using the incidence decay and exponential adjustment (IDEA) model

Greer, Amy L.; Spence, Kelsey; Gardner, Emma

In the province of Ontario, Canada, PEDV emerged in January 2014 however, planning for the possible emergence of the virus in Canada had already begun due to the clinical severity of the disease, rapidity with which it spread widely in the United States in 2013, and the expected devastating economic and emotional toll that the emergence of the disease in Canada would take on the swine industry and Canadian farm families. The dynamics of the 2014 Ontario outbreak were distinct from those observed in the United States, because direct farm-to-farm transmission of the pathogen was not believed to be the route of transmission early in the outbreak [15] . Instead, a common source exposure linked to PEDV contaminated swine feed was believed to be the primary driver of the early outbreak dynamics [15] . Following a voluntary recall of the potentially contaminated feed products, subsequent PEDV cases within the province were believed to be the result of direct transmission between farms/premises.