Understanding the early dynamics of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreak in Ontario using the incidence decay and exponential adjustment (IDEA) model

Greer, Amy L.; Spence, Kelsey; Gardner, Emma

The emergence and subsequent spread of PEDV within the province of Ontario in 2014 represents an important agricultural emergency and the disease remains a threat to the swine industry, and the Canadian economy [15, 30] . Developing an understanding of the important epidemiological characteristics and disease transmission dynamics of a novel pathogen such as PEDV is critical for helping to guide the implementation of effective, efficient, and economically feasible disease control and prevention strategies that are able to help decrease the impact of an outbreak. The ability to obtain short-term projections of epidemic growth and contraction using simple, case-count time series data represents an important capacity that has not been readily available prior to the development of the Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model [20] .