Author: Cauchemez, Simon; Epperson, Scott; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Swerdlow, David; Finelli, Lyn; Ferguson, Neil M.
Title: Using Routine Surveillance Data to Estimate the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Zoonoses: Application to the Emergence of US Swine Origin Influenza A H3N2v Virus Document date: 2013_3_5
ID: 16c8dwfq_16
Snippet: We first consider scenario 1 where each case has the same probability of being detected. In a typical chain of transmission of average length L L there is, by definition, one reservoir-to-human transmission event and L L{1 ð Þ human-to-human infections. The probability G that a case randomly picked up by surveillance was infected by the reservoir is therefore G~1= L L. However, for subcritical outbreaks (0,R,1), branching process theory tells u.....
Document: We first consider scenario 1 where each case has the same probability of being detected. In a typical chain of transmission of average length L L there is, by definition, one reservoir-to-human transmission event and L L{1 ð Þ human-to-human infections. The probability G that a case randomly picked up by surveillance was infected by the reservoir is therefore G~1= L L. However, for subcritical outbreaks (0,R,1), branching process theory tells us that the average length of a chain is L L~1= 1{R ð Þ [14] . We therefore obtain G~1{R.
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