Understanding the early dynamics of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreak in Ontario using the incidence decay and exponential adjustment (IDEA) model

Greer, Amy L.; Spence, Kelsey; Gardner, Emma

Previous exploratory work using the IDEA model has demonstrated its utility in describing epidemic processes in circumstances where the reproductive number (R 0 ) is low or moderate in size [20] . An important benefit of the model is the ability to fit the model to incidence or cumulative incidence data which is often the most easily accessible public data available in the early stages of an epidemic. In addition, unlike a mechanistic model, the IDEA model does not require extensive assumptions to be made regarding items such as the proportion of the population susceptible to the pathogen yet, appears to generate both epidemic size and duration projections that are in line with observations from a number of high-profile, human infectious disease outbreaks. The model has been shown to be able to detect abrupt changes in the epidemic curve due to disease control activities resulting from interventions. This is done by evaluating the change in the model control parameter (d) between each successive generation of the model.