Author: Greer, Amy L.; Spence, Kelsey; Gardner, Emma
Title: Understanding the early dynamics of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreak in Ontario using the incidence decay and exponential adjustment (IDEA) model Document date: 2017_1_5
ID: 1g2ij37f_26
Snippet: Model-based estimates for R 0 and the control parameter (d) had stabilized sufficiently by generation three for the IDEA model to be able to project the future course of the outbreak with significant accuracy (Fig. 4) . Using only the data available after three generations (March 6, 2014), the model projected that the peak of the outbreak would be reached by generation 12 (May 15, 2014) , and that the expected number of cumulative cases would be .....
Document: Model-based estimates for R 0 and the control parameter (d) had stabilized sufficiently by generation three for the IDEA model to be able to project the future course of the outbreak with significant accuracy (Fig. 4) . Using only the data available after three generations (March 6, 2014), the model projected that the peak of the outbreak would be reached by generation 12 (May 15, 2014) , and that the expected number of cumulative cases would be Curves generated from data early in the outbreak are strongly representative of those resulting from fitting to the entire time series 41. This is an excellent approximation of the actual observed number of cumulative cases on April 30, 2014 (N = 37) predicting the overall final epidemic size within four cases and estimating the end of the outbreak within 15 days. Using six generations worth of data did not significantly improve the predictive ability of the model compared to the estimates available at generation three (Fig. 4) .
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- case epidemic size and epidemic size: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
- case epidemic size and final case epidemic size: 1, 2
- control parameter and cumulative case: 1
- control parameter and epidemic size: 1, 2, 3
- control parameter and expected number: 1
- control parameter and future course: 1, 2
- control parameter and IDEA model: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- control parameter and model base: 1, 2
- cumulative case and epidemic size: 1, 2
- cumulative case and expected number: 1
- cumulative case and future course: 1, 2
- cumulative case and IDEA model: 1
- cumulative case and model base: 1, 2, 3
- cumulative case expected number and expected number: 1
- epidemic size and expected number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
- epidemic size and final case epidemic size: 1, 2
- epidemic size and future course: 1, 2, 3, 4
- epidemic size and IDEA model: 1, 2, 3
- expected number and IDEA model: 1
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date