Selected article for: "final size and time series"
Author: Greer, Amy L.; Spence, Kelsey; Gardner, Emma
Title: Understanding the early dynamics of the 2014 porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreak in Ontario using the incidence decay and exponential adjustment (IDEA) model
  • Document date: 2017_1_5
    • ID: 1g2ij37f_26
    Snippet: Model-based estimates for R 0 and the control parameter (d) had stabilized sufficiently by generation three for the IDEA model to be able to project the future course of the outbreak with significant accuracy (Fig. 4) . Using only the data available after three generations (March 6, 2014), the model projected that the peak of the outbreak would be reached by generation 12 (May 15, 2014) , and that the expected number of cumulative cases would be .....
    Document: Model-based estimates for R 0 and the control parameter (d) had stabilized sufficiently by generation three for the IDEA model to be able to project the future course of the outbreak with significant accuracy (Fig. 4) . Using only the data available after three generations (March 6, 2014), the model projected that the peak of the outbreak would be reached by generation 12 (May 15, 2014) , and that the expected number of cumulative cases would be Curves generated from data early in the outbreak are strongly representative of those resulting from fitting to the entire time series 41. This is an excellent approximation of the actual observed number of cumulative cases on April 30, 2014 (N = 37) predicting the overall final epidemic size within four cases and estimating the end of the outbreak within 15 days. Using six generations worth of data did not significantly improve the predictive ability of the model compared to the estimates available at generation three (Fig. 4) .

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