Basic prediction methodology for covid-19: estimation and sensitivity considerations

Tom Britton

The effect of this will be that the original basic reproduction number R 0 is reduced by a factor ρ such that the new, effective reproduction number R E is given by R E = (1 − ρ)R 0 (e.g. [4] ). In order to induce how the exponential growth is affected some results from epidemic theory are needed. The exponential growth r is a function of the basic reproduction number R 0 and the generation time G, where the latter is defined as the random variable describing the typical time between getting infected and infecting others. The complete relation is described by the Euler-Lotka equation (e.g. [2] ) but for a wide class of epidemic models the exponential growth r will lie between the two relations given by